Providence-Warwick MSA vs. Rhode Island Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Providence-Warwick MSA: 2022 Population = 1,673,802 2022 Percent of State = 0.58% Rhode Island: 2022 Population = 1,093,734 2022 Percent of U.S. = 0.33% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of the Providence-Warwick MSA with comparisons to Rhode Island and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing the Providence-Warwick MSA vs. Rhode Island's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 traces the Providence-Warwick MSA's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, the Providence-Warwick MSA's population rose from 1,373,193 in 1969 to 1,673,802 in 2022, for a net gain of 300,609, or 21.89%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 tracks Rhode Island's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Rhode Island's population rose from 932,000 in 1969 to 1,093,734 in 2022, for a net gain of 161,734, or 17.35%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 shows the Providence-Warwick MSA's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Rhode Island, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. The Providence-Warwick MSA's overall population growth was 21.89% over 1969-2022 outpaced Rhode Island's increase of 17.35%, and fell below the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Rhode Island Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of contrasting the population growth of the Providence-Warwick MSA is to trace its individual percentage contributions to Rhode Island's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Rhode Island's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, the Providence-Warwick MSA's population comprised 147.34% of Rhode Island's population, while in 2022 it totaled 153.04% thereby yielding a +5.70% share-shift.
Providence-Warwick MSA Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 highlights the short-run pattern of the Providence-Warwick MSA's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, the Providence-Warwick MSA's population grew at an annual rate of 0.38% over 1970-2022. The Providence-Warwick MSA recorded its highest growth in 1970 (1.67%) and posted its lowest growth in 1974 (-1.72%). In 2022, the Providence-Warwick MSA's population declined by -0.18% Providence-Warwick MSA Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some msas have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again illustrates the annual percent change in the Providence-Warwick MSA's population since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, the Providence-Warwick MSA's annual population growth rate averaged 0.41%. It averaged 0.50% during the 1980s, 0.44% in the 1990s, 0.19% during the 2000s, 0.43% throughout the 2010s, 0.05% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for the Providence-Warwick MSA noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Rhode Island and the nation. As the chart reveals, the Providence-Warwick MSA's average annual population growth topped Rhode Island's average in the 1970s (0.41% vs. 0.27%), registered above Rhode Island's average throughout the 1980s (0.50% vs. 0.45%), registered above Rhode Island's average during the 1990s (0.44% vs. 0.39%), outpaced Rhode Island's average during the 2000s (0.19% vs. 0.13%), topped Rhode Island's average during the 2010s (0.43% vs. 0.38%), and led Rhode Island's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (0.05% vs. -0.02%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, the Providence-Warwick MSA fell under the nation during the 1970s (0.41% vs. 1.10%), trailed the nation throughout the 1980s (0.50% vs. 0.95%), recorded underneath the nation in the 1990s (0.44% vs. 1.23%), trailed the nation in the 2000s (0.19% vs. 0.95%), fell under the nation over the 2010s (0.43% vs. 0.74%), and fell below the nation over 2020-2022 (0.05% vs. 0.31%).
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